These alone, however, can be unreliable estimators, because times are affected by many factors, including tyre compounds, fuel loads, set-ups, engine modes, traffic, and how hard the driver is pushing.
When it comes to testing data, media focus tends to be on the headline times, including the absolute fastest times set by each car. What is the form guide this year? Reviewing 2016: The importance of long-run analysisīefore starting, it’s worth revisiting last year’s pre-season analysis to demonstrate the value of this data analysis approach. As I showed in a previous analysis of team dominance, major rule changes have a tendency to give a large advantage to one team, whereas static rules tend to close up the field over time. Not only do we want to quantify how much faster the cars have become, but also assess how Pirelli’s new harder tyres are performing, and see how the new rules have changed the team hierarchy, if at all. With that in mind, examining 2017 pre-season testing is a fascinating proposition. There is a chance they will be the fastest circuit-racing cars ever created. Even from the first days of testing, the 2017 cars have looked viscerally exciting compared to those that came before. Instead, we have become accustomed to changes designed to curb speeds and improve safety, which led to the 2014-2016 breed looking somewhat prosaic in corners by the heady standards of the previous era. Not since 1966, when engine sizes were doubled, have the sport’s rule-makers introduced full-format changes with the primary intent of making the cars faster and more exciting. 2017 marks one of the largest changes in the history of Formula 1.
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